Foi aceite para publicação no Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development o artigo intitulado “Infrastructure Investment and Employment: Evidence for Portugal” [Investimento em Infraestruturas e Emprego: Evidência para Portugal], em coautoria com A. Pereira e R. Pereira.
Neste artigo usamos uma especificação vetor-autoregressiva (VAR) e dados sobre Portugal ao nível das suas 22 indústrias e sobre 12 tipos de infraestruturas para estimar o efeito que o investimento em cada um deles terá sobre o nível de emprego.
Os resultados a que chegámos sugerem que tanto a magnitude como o timing da criação de emprego depende crucialmente do tipo de infraestrutura no qual se investe. Os policymakers em Portugal devem levar este resultado em conta ao desenhar políticas económicas com fins contracíclicos (i.e., para atenuar os efeitos das flutuações [crises] no desempenho macroeconómico de curto prazo) ou estruturais (i.e., para aumentar o potencial de crescimento económico, agindo assim sobre o desempenho no longo prazo).
Abstract. We estimate how investment in twelve infrastructure types affects employment in Portugal. Using a vector-autoregressive specification at an industry level, we find a double dividend associated with ports and airports: investing in either delivers the greatest bang per euro, both on impact and in the long run. One million euro invested in ports (airports) creates 717.1 (290.5) jobs in the long run, and 535 (253.3) jobs in the short run. Regarding long-term employment effects, these are followed by municipal roads, telecommunications, national roads, health structures, education facilities, refineries, railroads, and highways. Water, electricity and gas infrastructures have negligible effects. Decomposing long-term effects, sizable supply-side employment effects for health and education facilities exist, while demand-side effects dominate for airports, ports, municipal roads, and telecommunications. Employment following investments in national roads is balanced across demand and supply channels. We find no significant employment-related location effects of infrastructure investments. Also, investing in either health facilities or in education buildings entails non-negligible job losses in the short run. These results suggest that the magnitude and the timing of job creation crucially depend on the type of infrastructure investment. Policymakers in Portugal need to be aware of this in choosing between countercyclical or structural targets.
10envolver: examinar, explicar, fazer crescer 