What this blog is all about (in Portuguese). For English, please scroll down.
Segundo o dicionário Priberam da língua portuguesa, desenvolver é um verbo transitivo que significa, entre outras coisas, examinar, explicar e fazer crescer.
O 10envolver é um blog particularmente vocacionado para o desenvolvimento da literacia economico-financeira dos povos lusófonos. É um espaço virtual onde examino e explico temas de macroeconomia e de finanças públicas com vista a aumentar o nosso potencial de crescimento. Serve também de repositório dos meus artigos e intervenções.
LEMA DESTE BLOG
“If economists want to be understood, let them use plainer words … [and] address those words less to politicians and more to everybody else. Politicians care about what voters think, especially voters in blocks, not a shred about what economists think. Talking to politicians about economics is therefore a waste of time. The only way to make governments behave as if they were economically literate is to confront them with electorates that are.”
The Economist, in Epping (1995) The Beginner’s Guide to the World Economy.
Pedro G. Rodrigues, PhD Economics
I’m currently based in lovely Lisbon, Portugal, where I work as an Economist / a Researcher at CAPP, Centre for Public Administration & Public Policies, of Universidade de Lisboa / and an Assistant Professor of Economics and of Public Finance at ISCSP, the Institute of Social and Political Sciences, at Universidade de Lisboa. (On Apr. 19th 2013, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa was merged into Universidade de Lisboa.) I attained my Ph.D. in Public Economics from Nova SBE, School of Business and Economics in July 2007 and specialized in macroeconomics. From February 2007 to June 2010, I was the Economic Advisor to the Secretary of State for the Budget and Deputy Minister of Finance of the Portuguese Republic.
Most of my research (mostly in the fiscal policy domain) focuses on long-term macroeconomic (dynamic general equilibrium) effects of public finance issues. These include, for instance, tax reforms, financial sustainability of public pension schemes, and climate change, all simulated on powerful computers (using nonlinear optimization algorithms). I’m also interested in performance-based management and budgeting in a public sector that increasingly focuses on the creation of value, and where artificial intelligence will likely have a key role to play in further rationalizing scarce resources to meet ever-increasing societal demands. In addition to my academic duties, over the years I have worked with the Portuguese government, the Portuguese ministries of finance and social affairs, the European Commission, the IMF and the OECD.
E-mail me (I’d love to hear from all of you!) if any of your economic/financial research interests coincide with any of the following keywords: Dynamic macro; Portuguese economy; macroeconomics of population ageing; fiscal policy; social insurance; social protection (including health issues and long-term care); public pensions; risk sharing; tax reforms; green taxes; financial sustainability; climate change; dynamic general equilibrium; GAMS; MATLAB; panel data; STATA; performance budgeting; performance management; artificial intelligence in public administration; AI in economics;
Economics at Nova SBE, School of Business and Economics (Lic 1998, MSc 2001, PhD 2007)
14th edition of the ISEG/UTL Summer School on “Simulation and estimation of DSGE models: an application to fiscal policy”, by Pedro M. Gomes (Jul. 2013)
“Pension Reform in Portugal: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis”
supervised by Alfredo M. Pereira (College of William and Mary, Virginia, USA)
Fields of interest
Macroeconomics (especially, Fiscal policy) | Public-sector economics | International economics | Finance | Development economics
Topics of interest
Fiscal policy; Economic growth; Risk; Demographics; Technology; International trade; Psychology; Geography; Politics; Economic literacy; Artificial intelligence;
Amélia de Melo award, best graduate student at Nova SBE, School of Business and Economics, Portugal, 2000
Portuguese Insurers’ Association award, best undergraduate in applied econometrics, 1997
Espírito Santo Bank award, best high-school student at Salesianos do Estoril, 1994
Assistant Professor, Institute of Social and Political Sciences (ISCSP), Universidade Técnica de Lisboa [merged into Universidade de Lisboa on Apr. 19, 2013] (Oct. 2009 – )
Economic Adviser to the Secretary of State for the Budget and Deputy Minister of Finance, Ministério das Finanças de Portugal (Feb. 2007 – Jun. 2010)
European Department, International Monetary Fund, Washington DC (summer intern, Jul. 2004 – Sep. 2004)
Economic research department (DGEP/GPEARI), Ministério das Finanças de Portugal (economist, Nov. 1998 – Jan. 2007)
Performance Budgeting Committee (Mar. 2007 – Jul. 2008)
Working Group on Population Ageing, EU’s Economic Policy Committee (Nov. 1999 – Nov. 2003)
Interministerial Working Group on Ageing, Portuguese Government (Jun. 2001 – Aug. 2002)
On the Editorial Board of the Journal Ciências e Políticas Públicas to promote internationalization (Jan. 2019 -)
Guest Editor (along with Feliciano Villar Posada and Maria João Bárrios) for a Special Number of the Journal Ciências e Políticas Públicas on Population Ageing and Public Policies [forthcoming in 2020].
Cadernos de Economia, Member of the International Editorial Council (Dec. 2013 -)
Refereeing / Reviewing
Revista de Finanças Públicas e Direito Fiscal (IDEFF, ULisboa);
London School of Economics (LSE) Review of Books; Lusophone Management & Administration Review;
Researcher of the Centre for Administration and Public Policies (CAPP), Institute of Social and Political Sciences, Universidade de Lisboa (Jan. 2011 – )
Associate researcher of the Centre for Globalization and Governance (CG&G), Department of Economics, Universidade Nova de Lisboa (Jul. 2009 – )
Collaborates with the Governance Studies Institute (IEG), ISCSP, Universidade de Lisboa (Jan. 2019 – )
Member of the American Economic Association (Jan. 2012 – )
Member of the Ordem dos Economistas [Portuguese Economists’ Association] (Member #5806, since 1998)
Invitation to speak @ Conferência “Orçamento do Estado 2017 – Saúde e Segurança Social – Para Onde Vamos?”, org. by Cidadania Social and Ordem dos Economistas, Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian (Lisboa, Portugal) “Segurança Social em Portugal: O que tem de acontecer para ser sustentável?” [“Social Security in Portugal: What Has to Happen for It to Be Sustainable?”] 28 October 2016
Seminário GEE (Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos) @ Ministério da Economia “On the Long-Term Impact of a Fiscal Devaluation: An Application to the Portuguese Case” (with A. Pereira and R. Pereira) 9 July 2015
GAPP Winter Workshop @ ISCSP-ULisboa “On the Long-Term Impact of a Fiscal Devaluation: An Application to the Portuguese Case” (with A. Pereira and R. Pereira) 11 February 2015
Invitation to speak @ Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa “O que é uma política orçamental responsável?” [“What is a responsible fiscal policy?”], 11 Dec. 2013, Lisbon
Seminar ‘Políticas Públicas às Terças’ [Public Policies on Tuesdays] @ ISCSP-UL “O que é uma política orçamental responsável?” [“What is a responsible fiscal policy?”], 10 Dec. 2013, Lisbon
INA Conference @ ISCSP-UTL “Towards an Open and Global Society: Rethinking the Role of the State, Public Policies, and Public Administration”, session on The Role of the State in the Economy and its Sustainability (Comment on Eng. Jorge Moreira da Silva’s presentation), May 2013, Lisbon.
@ ISEG-UTL, “Cinco ideias para a política orçamental em Portugal num contexto de crise” [Five ideas for fiscal policy in Portugal in a context of crisis], Nov. 2012, Lisbon.
Conference @ ISCSP-UTL “CIPPE – International Conference on Public Policies for Ageing”, session on Ageing, Well-Being, and Public Responses – Challenges and Solutions for the Future (Commentator), Nov. 2012, Lisbon.
Conference @ ISCSP-UTL “The Future of Portugal: Strategic Visions on the Future of Public Policies”, session on Competitiveness, Internationalization and Economic Growth, May 2012, Lisbon.
OECD/MoF’s Budget Department Seminar on Performance Budgeting, Jun. 2008, Lisbon
Portuguese-American Foundation for Development (FLAD), Jul. 2007, Lisbon
Department of Economics, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Jul. 2007, Lisbon
Economic Research Department, Banco de Portugal, Jan. 2006, Lisbon
Seminar on Social Security at the Capital Markets’ Institute, 2003, Porto
Conference of the International Economic Association (IEA), 2002, Lisbon
Workshop on Public Finances hosted by Banca d’Italia, 2002, Perugia
Conference of the Society of Computational Economics (SCE), 2000, Barcelona
Meeting of the Portuguese Society for Research in Economics (SPiE), 2000, Porto
Research thus far
Tax reform | Budgetary and macroeconomic effects of an ageing population | Public pension reform | Fiscal institutions’ reform | Risk sharing aspects of social protection
Please see my Research page.
Advisees that concluded successfully (in chronological order)
Maria Cruz (Masters in Management and Public Policies, July 2013);
Wilson Barroso (Internship report – Bachelors in Public Admin., September 2015);
Anabela Vilão (Masters in Management and Public Policies, January 2016); Fernando Pinto (Masters in Management and Public Policies, January 2019); Sara Correia (Masters in Management and Public Policies, January 2019); Francielli Cardoso (Masters in Management and Public Policies, July 2019);
Jury service outside ISCSP
Luís Martins (Master of Science, ISEG School of Economics and Management, June 2014);
Rui Pereira (Ph.D, Department of Economics, Universidade do Algarve, January 2011);
Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA);
DG Alfândegas e Dos Impostos Especiais Sobre o Consumo, Ministério das Finanças;
Economics 101 (B.A. in Human Resources Management);
Public Finance (Masters in Public Administration) a.k.a. Fiscal Policy and Fiscal Management;
Health Economics (Masters in Public Administration);
Strategy and Organizational Planning (B.A. in Human Resources Management);
Investment and Foreign Portfolio Management (Masters in Economics and International Finance, Angola);
In the past:
Design and Implementation of Public Policies (Masters in Management and Public Policies); (Limits of) Socio-economic Planning (B.A. in Public Administration); Economics 101 (B.A. in Public Administration and Territorial Policies);
Economics 101 (B.A. in Sociology);
Principles of Microeconomics (B.A. in Public Administration and Territorial Policies);
Principles of Macroeconomics (B.A. in Public Administration and Territorial Policies);
In the press
(Caveat emptor: Titles can sometimes be misleading.)
“Como pensar a reforma do sistema público de pensões”, Público, April 29th, 2019 (ler aqui)
“Oito análises aos desafios pós-eleitorais”, Jornal de Negócios, October 5th, 2015 (ler aqui).
“Meta do défice de 2015 cada vez mais improvável”, Jornal de Negócios, September 23rd, 2015 (ler aqui).
“Wie Portugals Rentensystem früh alterte”, Neue Zürcher Zeitung, September 4th, 2015.
Entrevista concedida à Antena 1 sobre se Portugal deve ou não reestruturar a sua dívida soberana, October 3rd 2013 (ouvir e ler aqui).
“TSU: Três possíveis adaptações à medida anunciada pelo primeiro-ministro” [TSU: Three possible adaptations to the measure announced by the prime-minister], Jornal de Negócios, September 19th 2012 [PDF].
“Deve Portugal reestruturar a sua dívida pública? Não.” [Should Portugal restructure its public debt? No.], Jornal de Negócios, June 19th 2012 [PDF].
“Portugal sem margem para estimular economia” [Portugal without leeway to stimulate economy], Jornal de Negócios, May 21st 2012. [PDF]
“Previsões para o IVA não reflectem quebra esperada do consumo” [VAT projections do not reflect expected shortfall in consumption], Jornal de Negócios, Apr. 20th 2012 [PDF].
“Descida da taxa social única deve ser paga pelo IRS e IRC” [Lower TSU ought to be paid with personal and corporate income taxes], Jornal de Negócios, Dec. 7th 2010 [PDF].
“Proposta do segundo pilar do sistema de pensões assenta na capitalização” [Proposal for a second pillar of the pension system based on capitalization], Público, 18 Jul. 2007 [link].
“Subida do IVA de 21 para 25% é a melhor medida para garantir a sustentabilidade do sistema de Segurança Social” [Raising the VAT rate from 21 to 25% is the best measure to guarantee the sustainability of the Social Security system], (based on the conclusions of this book), interview for Antena 1 radio station, 17 July 2007.
“Estudo considera ‘inevitável’ nova mudança nas pensões” [Study says a new change in pensions is ‘inevitable’], Público, Jul. 17 2007 [link].
“Ganhar mais depois dos 65” [Earning more after 65], interview for Tempo magazine, Feb. 2005.
“Economistas sugerem poupanças obrigatórias” [Economists suggest compulsory savings], Independente (weekly newspaper), 11 Feb. 2005.
“Especialistas em Segurança Social comentam programas eleitorais do PSD e do PS” [Social Security Experts comment on PSD and PS’s electoral programs], Jornal de Negócios, Feb 3rd, 2005.
“Velhos e muito activos” [Elderly and very active], interview for Focus magazine, no. 277, Feb. 2005.
“Trabalhar até aos 70” [Working until 70], Expresso (weekly newspaper), Jan. 15th, 2005.
“Modernizar a Segurança Social” [Modernizing Social Security] (with P. Silva), Jornal de Notícias, Jan. 24th, 2005.
“Aumento da idade de reforma é ‘essencial’ para evitar ruptura do sistema” [Raising the retirement age is ‘essential’ to avoid systemic breakdown], interview for Euronotícias newspaper, Mar. 28th, 2003.