ABOUT

What this blog is all about (in Portuguese). For English, please scroll down. 

Segundo o dicionário Priberam da língua portuguesa, desenvolver é um verbo transitivo que significa, entre outras coisas, examinar, explicar e fazer crescer.

O 10envolver é um blog particularmente vocacionado para o desenvolvimento da literacia económico-financeira dos povos lusófonos. É um espaço virtual onde examino e explico temas de macroeconomia e de finanças públicas com vista a aumentar o nosso potencial de crescimento. Serve também de repositório dos meus artigos e intervenções.

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LEMA DESTE BLOG // What this blog is all about

10envolver aims to assist Portuguese-speaking people in developing economic and financial literacy. It’s a virtual space where I examine and explain topics related to macroeconomics and public finance to promote our economic growth potential. It also serves to present my articles and interventions. See my RESEARCH page.

“If economists want to be understood, let them use plainer words … [and] address those words less to politicians and more to everybody else. Politicians care about what voters think, especially voters in blocks, not a shred about what economists think. Talking to politicians about economics is therefore a waste of time. The only way to make governments behave as if they were economically literate is to confront them with electorates that are.”

The Economist, in Epping (1995) The Beginner’s Guide to the World Economy.

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Pedro G. Rodrigues, Ph.D. Economics

Investigador integrado no Centro de Administração e Políticas Públicas e Professor Auxiliar do Instituto Superior de Ciências Sociais e Políticas, Universidade de Lisboa

Áreas de interesse (Classificação JEL): E69: Aspetos macroeconómicos das finanças públicas (questões de médio-longo prazo como os efeitos económicos de alterações climáticas e demográficas | sustentabilidade financeira de longo prazo) | E62 e H3: Política orçamental (dinâmica) | H2: Política fiscal (crescimento económico e questões de eficiência económica | tributação verde) | H51, H54 e H55: Despesa pública em saúde (digital), infraestruturas e segurança social (pensões públicas | partilha de risco) | H61: Sistemas orçamentais (orçamentação orientada para o desempenho) | H83: Administração Pública | D58 e C68: Modelos computacionais de equilíbrio geral | C50 e C69: Modelização econométrica e por simulações | C61: Análise dinâmica | Política social (seguro social | questões taxonómicas) | Inteligência artificial aplicada às políticas públicas | Inteligência artificial na Administração Pública) | Governança multinível |

Integrated researcher at the Center for Administration and Public Policies and Assistant Professor at the Institute of Social and Political Sciences, Universidade de Lisboa

Areas of interest (JEL Classification): E69: Macroeconomic aspects of public finance (medium to long-term questions like the economic effects of climate and demographic change | long-term financial sustainability) | E62 and H3: Fiscal policy (dynamic) | H2: Tax policy (economic growth and economic efficiency issues | green taxation ) H51, H54 and H55: Public spending on health (digital), infrastructures and social security (public pensions | risk sharing arrangements) | H61: Budgetary systems (performance-oriented budgeting) | H83: Public Administration | D58 and C68: Computational general equilibrium models | C50 and C69: Econometric modelling and simulation modelling | C61: Dynamic analysis | Social policy (social insurance | taxonomic issues) | AI applied to public policies | AI in Public Administration | Multilevel governance |

E-mail me at: pedro.g.rodrigues@campus.ul.pt

Ciência Vitae; ORCID; SCOPUS; Google Scholar Profile; Público;

    

As a Portuguese/South African native, I’m currently based in lovely Lisbon, Portugal, where I work as an Economist / a Researcher at CAPP, the Center for Public Administration & Public Policies, of Universidade de Lisboa / and as an Assistant Professor at ISCSP, the Institute of Social and Political Sciences, at Universidade de Lisboa. (On Apr. 19th 2013, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa was merged into Universidade de Lisboa.) I attained my Ph.D. in Economics from Nova SBE, School of Business and Economics in July 2007, having specialized both in Public Economics and in Macroeconomics. From February 2007 to June 2010 – during an intensive 40 month stint working one of major corridors of power – I was the Economic Advisor to the Secretary of State for the Budget and Deputy Minister of Finance of the Portuguese Republic.

Most of my research (mostly in the fiscal policy domain) focuses on long-term macroeconomic (dynamic general equilibrium) effects of public finance issues. These include, for instance, tax reforms, financial sustainability of public pension schemes, and climate change, all simulated on powerful computers (using nonlinear optimization algorithms). I’m also interested in performance-based management and budgeting in a public sector that increasingly focuses on the creation of value, and where artificial intelligence will likely have a key role to play in further rationalizing scarce resources to meet ever-increasing societal demands. In addition to my academic duties, over the years I have worked with the Portuguese government, the Portuguese ministries of finance and social affairs, the European Commission, the IMF and the OECD.

E-mail me at pedro.g.rodrigues@campus.ul.pt if any of your economic/financial research interests coincide with any of the following keywords: Dynamic macro; Portuguese economy; macroeconomics of population ageing; fiscal policy; social insurance; risk sharing; tax reforms; green taxes; financial sustainability; climate change; dynamic general equilibrium; GAMS; MATLAB; panel data; STATA; performance budgeting; performance management; artificial intelligence in public administration; AI in economics;

Education

Economics at Nova SBE, School of Business and Economics (Lic. 1998, M.Sc. 2001, Ph.D. 2007)

14th edition of the ISEG/UTL Summer School on “Simulation and estimation of DSGE models: an application to fiscal policy”, by Pedro M. Gomes (Jul. 2013)

Ph.D. thesis

“Pension Reform in Portugal: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis”
supervised by Alfredo M. Pereira (College of William and Mary, Virginia, USA)

Fields of interest

Macroeconomics (especially, Fiscal policy) | Public-sector economics | International economics | Finance | Development economics

Topics of interest

Fiscal policy; Economic growth; Risk; Demographics; Technology; International trade; Psychology; Geography; Politics; Economic literacy; Artificial intelligence;

Awards

Caixa Geral de Depósitos award, Scientific Merit – Advanced Research (Public Administration), 2020

Amélia de Melo award, best graduate student at Nova SBE, School of Business and Economics, Portugal, 2000

Portuguese Insurers’ Association award, best undergraduate in applied econometrics, 1997

Espírito Santo Bank award, best high-school student at Salesianos do Estoril, 1994

Career

Assistant Professor, School of Social and Political Sciences (ISCSP), Universidade Técnica de Lisboa [merged into Universidade de Lisboa on Apr. 19, 2013] (Oct. 2009 – )

Economic Adviser to the Secretary of State for the Budget and Deputy Minister of Finance, Ministério das Finanças de Portugal (Feb. 2007 – Jun. 2010)

European Department, International Monetary Fund, Washington DC (summer intern, Jul. 2004 – Sep. 2004)

Economic research department (DGEP/GPEARI), Ministério das Finanças de Portugal (economist, Nov. 1998 – Jan. 2007)

Representations

Performance Budgeting Committee (Mar. 2007 – Jul. 2008)

Working Group on Population Ageing, EU’s Economic Policy Committee (Nov. 1999 – Nov. 2003)

Interministerial Working Group on Ageing, Portuguese Government (Jun. 2001 – Aug. 2002)

Editorial activities

On the Editorial Board of the Journal Public Sciences and Policies to promote internationalization (Jan. 2019 – Nov. 2021)

Guest Editor (along with Maria João Bárrios and Feliciano Villar) for a Special Number of the Journal Public Sciences and Policies on Population Ageing and Public Policies (2020)

Cadernos de Economia, Member of the International Editorial Council (Dec. 2013 – )

Academic activities

On the coordinating team of the Masters and Ph.D. in Human Resource Development Policies, ISCSP-ULisboa (July 2020 – July 2022)

Coordinator of the Research Group on Power, Public Administration and Public Policies (PAPP) of the Center for Administration and Public Policies (CAPP), Institute of Social and Political Sciences, ULisboa (July 2022 – )

Nominated by ISCSP’s Scientific Council as a Member of the Ad Hoc Group to Regulate Article-Based Ph.D. Dissertations (October 2022) 

Refereeing / Reviewing

Energy Policy; Journal of Green and Low-Carbon Economy (GLCE); Journal of Eastern European Studies; Análise Social (ICS, ULisboa); Revista de Finanças Públicas e Direito Fiscal (IDEFF, ULisboa); London School of Economics (LSE) Review of Books; Lusophone Management & Administration Review;

Associations

Integrated researcher of the Centre for Administration and Public Policies (CAPP), Institute of Social and Political Sciences, Universidade de Lisboa (Jan. 2011 – )

Associate researcher of the Centre for Globalization and Governance (CG&G), Department of Economics, Universidade Nova de Lisboa (Jul. 2009 – )

Member of the Oxford Club (April 2021 – )

Collaborates with the Governance Studies Institute (IEG), ISCSP, Universidade de Lisboa (Jan. 2019 – )

Member of the American Economic Association (Jan. 2012 – )

Member of the Ordem dos Economistas [Portuguese Economists’ Association] (Member #5806, since 1998)

Presentations and Moderations

ESPANET 2022 Vienna Conference, “Research Agenda on Social Policy” (with Fernando Serra and Maria J. Bárrios), 14 September 2022. [PPT] [Social Policy Literature Classification – Preliminary, please do NOT cite without our permission].

Moderação da Conferência ISCSP – Administração Pública Portuguesa no Séc. XXI: Políticas Públicas e os Desafios Contemporâneos, 11 de maio de 2022, “Verdade e Pós-Verdade na Discursividade das Políticas Públicas”, com a presença dos professores Frank Fischer (Humboldt University) e Leonardo Secchi (Universidade do Estado de Santa Catarina, SC/SBAP).

Moderação (em Português) do Webinar “Pandemia e Recuperação Económica” [Pandemic and Economic Recovery], organizado pelo CAPP/ISCSP/FCT no âmbito da Presidência Portuguesa do Conselho da União Europeia, onde participaram os oradores convidados Constantino Sakellarides (Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública) e Ricardo Reis (London School of Economics), 28 de janeiro de 2021 das 18:00 às 19:30.

Open Class @ Academia de Ciências Sociais e Tecnologias (ACITE), Luanda, Angola titled “A Importância do Outlook Macroeconómico e Regulamentar para o Investimento e Gestão de Portfólio e Que Indicadores de Desempenho Que Aparecem nas Notícias Devemos Monitorar” [The Importance of the Macroeconomic and Regulatory Outlook for Investment and Portfolio Management and Which Economic Performance Indicators that Appear in the News We Ought to Monitor] 24 October 2019. Extra two slides that show a technical analysis with Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions on Brent Crude Oil: slide 1, slide 2.

Invitation to speak @ Conferência “Orçamento do Estado 2017 – Saúde e Segurança Social – Para Onde Vamos?”, org. by Cidadania Social and Ordem dos Economistas, Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian (Lisboa, Portugal) “Segurança Social em Portugal: O que tem de acontecer para ser sustentável?” [“Social Security in Portugal: What Has to Happen for It to Be Sustainable?”] 28 October 2016

Seminário GEE (Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos) @ Ministério da Economia “On the Long-Term Impact of a Fiscal Devaluation: An Application to the Portuguese Case” (with A. Pereira and R. Pereira) 9 July 2015

GAPP Winter Workshop @ ISCSP-ULisboa “On the Long-Term Impact of a Fiscal Devaluation: An Application to the Portuguese Case” (with A. Pereira and R. Pereira) 11 February 2015

GAPP Summer Workshop @ ISCSP-ULisboa “Benchmarking Water Utilities in Portugal:
A Monte-Carlo Data Envelopment Analysis” (with B. Duarte, A. Rodrigues and J. Sousa) 15 July 2014

Invitation to speak @ Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa “O que é uma política orçamental responsável?” [“What is a responsible fiscal policy?”], 11 Dec. 2013, Lisbon

Seminar ‘Políticas Públicas às Terças’ [Public Policies on Tuesdays] @ ISCSP-UL “O que é uma política orçamental responsável?” [“What is a responsible fiscal policy?”], 10 Dec. 2013, Lisbon

INA Conference @ ISCSP-UTL “Towards an Open and Global Society: Rethinking the Role of the State, Public Policies, and Public Administration”, session on The Role of the State in the Economy and its Sustainability (Comment on Eng. Jorge Moreira da Silva’s presentation), May 2013, Lisbon.

@ ISEG-UTL, “Cinco ideias para a política orçamental em Portugal num contexto de crise” [Five ideas for fiscal policy in Portugal in a context of crisis], Nov. 2012, Lisbon.

Conference @ ISCSP-UTL “CIPPE – International Conference on Public Policies for Ageing”, session on Ageing, Well-Being, and Public Responses – Challenges and Solutions for the Future (Commentator), Nov. 2012, Lisbon.

Conference @ ISCSP-UTL “The Future of Portugal: Strategic Visions on the Future of Public Policies”, session on Competitiveness, Internationalization and Economic Growth, May 2012, Lisbon.

OECD/MoF’s Budget Department Seminar on Performance Budgeting, Jun. 2008, Lisbon

Portuguese-American Foundation for Development (FLAD), Jul. 2007, Lisbon

Department of Economics, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Jul. 2007, Lisbon

Economic Research Department, Banco de Portugal, Jan. 2006, Lisbon

Seminar on Social Security at the Capital Markets’ Institute, 2003, Porto

Conference of the International Economic Association (IEA), 2002, Lisbon

Workshop on Public Finances hosted by Banca d’Italia, 2002, Perugia

Conference of the Society of Computational Economics (SCE), 2000, Barcelona

Meeting of the Portuguese Society for Research in Economics (SPiE), 2000, Porto

Research thus far

Tax reform | Budgetary and macroeconomic effects of an ageing population | Public pension reform | Fiscal institutions’ reform | Risk sharing aspects of social protection

Publications

Please see my Research page.

Click on the following image for my most cited research.

My Scopus author profile:

Advisees that concluded successfully (in chronological order)

Maria Cruz (Masters in Management and Public Policies, July 2013);
Wilson Barroso (Internship report – Bachelors in Public Admin., September 2015);
Anabela Vilão (Masters in Management and Public Policies, January 2016);                            Fernando Pinto (Masters in Management and Public Policies, January 2019);                        Sara Correia (Masters in Management and Public Policies, January 2019);                            Francielli Cardoso (Masters in Management and Public Policies, July 2019);                            Roberto Chan Ka Long (Masters in Public Administration, December 2019);                  Guilherme Romão (Masters in Management and Public Policies, February 2020);                  José Bustorff (Masters in Public Administration, December 2020);                                  Marta Mendes (Masters in Public Administration, July 2022);

Éder Alves (Ph.D. in Public Administration, Specialty in Administration and Public Policies, February 2021) – A Tributação da Economia Digital no Brasil e na União Europeia: Uma Análise do Processo de Agendamento e Formulação de Políticas Públicas [On the Taxation of the Digital Economy in Brazil and in the European Union: An Analysis of the Agenda Process and the Formulation of Public Policies].

Current advisees

Anabela Vilão, Luís Pêcego, Rúben Mejía, Alan Towersey, Roberto da Silva Santos, Lindemberg Cavalcante e Márcio Morais (Ph.D. in Public Administration, Specialty in Administration and Public Policies, ongoing).

Jocelino Rodrigues (Masters in Management and Public Policies, ongoing). Jéssica Tavares Passarinho (Masters in Management and Public Policies, ongoing).

Jury service within ISCSP (Ph.D. level)

Pedro Ribeiro (Ph.D. in Public Administration, Specialty in Administration and Public Policies, February 2022) – Valores Públicos e Performance Financeira das Entidades Públicas: Proposta de Modelo de Análise na Perspetiva do Relato [Public Values and Financial Performance of Public Entities: Proposal of a Model of Analysis in the Perspective of the Reporting]

Evandro Diefenbach (Ph.D. in Public Administration, April 2021)

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Clara Meneses (CAD – Comissão de Acompanhamento, PhD in Public Administration, July 2022)

Igor Lucena (CAD – Comissão de Acompanhamento, PhD in International Relations, June 2021)

Lucília Oliveira (PhD in Human Resource Development Policies, November 2020 [participation as President of the jury for the CAD – Comissão de Acompanhamento])

Osvaldo Abreu (CAD – Comissão de Acompanhamento, PhD in ???, March 2018)

Jury service within ISCSP (Masters level)

Ana Santos (Masters in Human Resource Development Policies, October 2022 [participation as President of the jury])

Ana Sofia Ribeiro (Masters in Management and Public Policies, October 2022)

Ana Beatriz Machado (Masters in Human Resource Development Policies, October 2022)

Ana Piscarreta (Masters in Public Administration, February 2022)

Yuxin Cui (Masters in Management and Public Policies, July 2021)

Carla Lopes (Masters in Public Administration, May 2021)

Neuza Martins (Masters in Public Administration, March 2021)

Guilherme Malcato (Masters in Human Resource Development Policies, December 2020 [participation as President of the jury])

Hermenegildo Baptista Carvalho (Masters in Public Administration, December 2020)

Sara Correia (Masters in Management and Public Policies, 2019)

Luís Lavado (Masters in Society, Risk and Health, October 2019)

Laura Catalina Bustamonte Garcia (Masters in Public Administration, 2018)

As discussant in workshops: Luís Dionísio (MGPP), Cátia Alves (MPA), Cláudia Baleia (MSRS), Nuno Costa (MPA), Alexandre Freire (MPA), Estanislau Dias (MPA), José Pedro Vieira (Masters in Strategy), Sandra Neto (MPA), Edgar Uranga (MGPP), among several others

Jury service outside ISCSP

Conselho Superior da Magistratura – DSAF 2.º grau (CSM, October 2022);

Conselho Superior da Magistratura – DSAF 1.º grau (CSM, October 2022);

Autoridade Tributária (AT, March 2021);

Instituto de Emprego e Formação Profissional (IEFP, October 2020);

Luís Martins (Master of Science, ISEG School of Economics and Management, June 2014);

Rui Pereira (Ph.D, Department of Economics, Universidade do Algarve, January 2011);

Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA);

DG Alfândegas e Dos Impostos Especiais Sobre o Consumo, Ministério das Finanças;

Lecturing

Economics 101 (B.A. in Human Resources Management);

Health Economics (Masters in Public Administration);

Strategy and Organizational Planning (B.A. in Human Resources Management);

Project Seminar (Ph.D. in ​Human Resource Development Policies);

Project Seminar (Ph.D. in Public Administration);

Social Security and Pension Systems (Masters in Social Policy) [forthcoming];

In the past:

Investment and Foreign Portfolio Management (Masters in Economics and International Finance, Angola);

Public Finance (Masters in Public Administration) a.k.a. Fiscal Policy and Fiscal Management;

Design and Implementation of Public Policies (Masters in Management and Public Policies);                                                                                                                                        (Limits of) Socio-economic Planning (B.A. in Public Administration);                        Economics 101 (B.A. in Public Administration and Territorial Policies);
Economics 101 (B.A. in Sociology);
Principles of Microeconomics (B.A. in Public Administration and Territorial Policies);
Principles of Macroeconomics (B.A. in Public Administration and Territorial Policies);

In the press

(Caveat emptor: Titles can sometimes be misleading.)

“PRR: Descentralizar e Capacitar”, Público, February 23rd, 2021 (ler aqui).

“Covid-19. União Europeia deveria ter aprovado vacinas ‘bastante mais cedo’, diz economista”, Observador, January 29th, 2021 (ler aqui)

“Como pensar a reforma do sistema público de pensões”, Público, April 29th, 2019 (ler aqui)

“Infra-estruturas de saúde e o desempenho da economia: as razões por que mais é melhor”, Público, November 20th, 2017 (ler aqui)

“Oito análises aos desafios pós-eleitorais”, Jornal de Negócios, October 5th, 2015 (ler aqui).

“Meta do défice de 2015 cada vez mais improvável”, Jornal de Negócios, September 23rd, 2015 (ler aqui).

“Wie Portugals Rentensystem früh alterte”, Neue Zürcher Zeitung, September 4th, 2015.

Entrevista concedida à Antena 1 sobre se Portugal deve ou não reestruturar a sua dívida soberana, October 3rd 2013 (ouvir e ler aqui).

“TSU: Três possíveis adaptações à medida anunciada pelo primeiro-ministro” [TSU: Three possible adaptations to the measure announced by the prime-minister], Jornal de Negócios, September 19th 2012 [PDF].

“Deve Portugal reestruturar a sua dívida pública? Não.” [Should Portugal restructure its public debt? No.], Jornal de Negócios, June 19th 2012 [PDF].

“Portugal sem margem para estimular economia” [Portugal without leeway to stimulate economy], Jornal de Negócios, May 21st 2012. [PDF]

“Previsões para o IVA não reflectem quebra esperada do consumo” [VAT projections do not reflect expected shortfall in consumption], Jornal de Negócios, Apr. 20th 2012 [PDF].

“Descida da taxa social única deve ser paga pelo IRS e IRC” [Lower TSU ought to be paid with personal and corporate income taxes], Jornal de Negócios, Dec. 7th 2010 [PDF].

“Proposta do segundo pilar do sistema de pensões assenta na capitalização” [Proposal for a second pillar of the pension system based on capitalization], Público, 18 Jul. 2007 [link].

“Subida do IVA de 21 para 25% é a melhor medida para garantir a sustentabilidade do sistema de Segurança Social” [Raising the VAT rate from 21 to 25% is the best measure to guarantee the sustainability of the Social Security system], (based on the conclusions of this book), interview for Antena 1 radio station, 17 July 2007.

“Estudo considera ‘inevitável’ nova mudança nas pensões” [Study says a new change in pensions is ‘inevitable’], Público, Jul. 17 2007 [link].

“Ganhar mais depois dos 65” [Earning more after 65], interview for Tempo magazine, Feb. 2005.

“Economistas sugerem poupanças obrigatórias” [Economists suggest compulsory savings], Independente (weekly newspaper), 11 Feb. 2005.

“Especialistas em Segurança Social comentam programas eleitorais do PSD e do PS” [Social Security Experts comment on PSD and PS’s electoral programs], Jornal de Negócios, Feb 3rd, 2005.

“Velhos e muito activos” [Elderly and very active], interview for Focus magazine, no. 277, Feb. 2005.

“Trabalhar até aos 70” [Working until 70], Expresso (weekly newspaper), Jan. 15th, 2005.

“Modernizar a Segurança Social” [Modernizing Social Security] (with P. Silva), Jornal de Notícias, Jan. 24th, 2005.

“Aumento da idade de reforma é ‘essencial’ para evitar ruptura do sistema” [Raising the retirement age is ‘essential’ to avoid systemic breakdown], interview for Euronotícias newspaper, Mar. 28th, 2003.

Conferences co-organized

X International Conference on Research and Intervention in Human Resources (virtual), organized by ISCSP, Universidade de Lisboa, October 28-29, 2021.

OECD/MoF’s Budget Department Seminar on Performance Budgeting, Jun. 2008, Lisbon

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